The statistics published on October, 2, 2014  in Russian FCS informs the trade surplus of Russia have amounted to 132.713 billion for January-July 2014. This represents an increase of 9.94% in comparison with 2013 year, when the surplus for the same period was amounted to 120.707 billion.

In January 2014 sanctions caused the decline in Russian imports on 11.4% to a record low (20.4781 billion.) for the last four years. Thus export has grown with the surplus of foreign trade operations in more than 20%!

In the 2nd quarter 2014 release of the processing productions constituted 24,7% in comparison with 1 quarter 2014.

We may state that we are observers of a stage of Russian economy’s breakthrough and conditions for such a growth were created by the western countries having imposed sanctions. For example, import substitution began with food and engineering products, as clearly evidenced by the statistics. Industrial parks (eg, Zheleznogorsk) received large government contracts to manufacture its own microelectronic components, aircraft and shipbuilding factories also received large government orders.

However, a capability to increase production directly depends on a surplus of the electrogenerating capacities, since the entire production is carried out in Russia on electricity. Very few people know that the nuclear power plant on fast neutrons of BSN-800 was started on June 27 at 13.00 (Moscow time). The power plant of BSN-800 is comparable in capacity with three Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power stations (if to consider heat energy). In 2015 it will be additional 0,797% of the electricity produced in Russia only by this power plant and this will allow a 1.2% increase in industrial production. On september 18, 2014 Rosatom THC produced its first batch of MOX fuel (energy source for nuclear fast breeder based on plutonium dioxide and uranium) in the framework of longer experimental, and industrial production.

There are 6 NPPs under construction in Russia in total, and the whole amount of input of electrocapacities in case of disposal will constitute 76 GW of 26,4 GW, and at the total amount of working capacities of 175,5 GW in the next 2 years. It means that until the end of 2016 the amount of capacities for power generation in Russia will increase by 28,26% and it will provide an opportunity to increase industrial production by 42.2% at current levels of energy efficiency.

In this regard, the analytical department SMART Securities considers unreasonable to recommend investors to reduce investments in Russia, or to purchase foreign currency. On the contrary, the real exchange rate is strongly undervalued, which creates conditions for the strengthening of the ruble by 10-15% in the near future.